AEM Seminar: Bayesian Target Tracking: From the Kalman Filter to Modern Approaches with Application to SSA
Richard Linares, Assistant Professor, Aerospace Engineering, University of Minnesota
2:30 PM on 2018-02-23
Akerman 319
Abstract:
This talk will discuss the evolution of Bayesian tracking methods, from historic application to the Apollo missions to modern tracking problems in the space domain. Improvements in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) have been identified as a top priority to protect the U.S. and its allies as well as maintaining its economic and diplomatic objectives. This talk discusses novel methods for satellite tracking and a new approach for tracking reentries of Space Objects (SOs) using publicly available Doppler weather radar data. This presentation will discuss the use of NEXRAD Doppler data for tracking space debris during the terminal stage of reentry to determine the locations of debris fields more accurately for recovery. The proposed work predicts the orbital path of the SO using Two-Line- Elements (TLEs), other tracking data sources, and/or follow-on observations to determine reentry location and time. A reentry dynamics model is used to forecast the uncertainty in the reentry prediction. This work also uses amateur eyewitness data to provide additional information on the reentry events.
Finally, with these coarse estimates of the predicted area of re-entry, the Doppler data is analyzed in the regions where the reentry is predicted to be and/or observed by eyewitnesses. Trajectory estimation techniques are applied to the Doppler measurements to calculate a probability distribution for the debris field.
Bio:
Professor Linares's research interests are nonlinear estimation, Bayesian inference, uncertainty quantification, optimal control, and reinforcement learning. Dr. Linares joined the faculty of University of Minnesota's Department of Aerospace Engineering and Mechanics as a Professor (Assistant) in 2015 after a short tenure as a Postdoctoral Associate at the US Naval Observatory. Prior to moving to Washington, D.C., he held a Director's Postdoctoral Fellow position at Los Alamos National Labs.