University of Minnesota
Aerospace Engineering and Mechanics
Spring 1998 Seminar Series

Medium Term Conflict Detection for Air Traffic Management:
Operational Concepts and Requirement Analysis

Dr. Anthony Warren
Boeing Commercial Aircraft Group


Next generation air traffic management systems will provide automated, early detection of flight path separation conflicts for en-route aircraft. This involves finding all potential conflicts (intruders) for each aircraft traversing controlled airspace. Next generation systems will provide medium term (15 - 30 min.) lookahead for early detection and resolution of separation conflicts. This talk will focus on technical concepts for conflict probe algorithm development, and engineering studies to specify requirements for acceptable probe performance.

Covariance analysis has played a key role in our studies, and is a natural tool for modeling uncertainties in aircraft path prediction. We examined several types of algorithms for conflict probe and concluded that a covariance based conflict probe provides overall best performance in light of missed detection, false alert, and alert time performance criteria.

Results of conflict probe sensitivity studies using Monte-Carlo and covariance analysis are discussed. These studies provided the means for allocating navigation, surveillance, and wind forecasting requirements for desired conflict probe performance.

Friday, May 15, 1998
209 Akerman Hall
2:30-3:30 p.m.

Refreshments served after the seminar in 227 Akerman Hall.
Disability accomodations provided upon request.
Contact Audrey Stark-Evers, Senior Secretary, 625-8000.