University of Minnesota
Aerospace Engineering and Mechanics
Spring 1998 Seminar Series
Medium Term Conflict Detection for Air Traffic Management:
Concepts and Requirement Analysis
Next generation air traffic management systems will provide automated, early
detection of flight path separation conflicts for en-route aircraft. This
involves finding all potential conflicts (intruders) for each aircraft
traversing controlled airspace. Next generation systems will provide medium
term (15 - 30 min.) lookahead for early detection and resolution of separation
conflicts. This talk will focus on technical concepts for conflict probe
algorithm development, and engineering studies to specify requirements for
acceptable probe performance.
Covariance analysis has played a key role in our studies, and is a
natural tool for modeling uncertainties in aircraft path prediction. We
examined several types of algorithms for conflict probe and concluded that a
covariance based conflict probe provides overall best performance in light of
missed detection, false alert, and alert time performance criteria.
Results of conflict probe sensitivity studies using Monte-Carlo and
covariance analysis are discussed. These studies provided the means for
allocating navigation, surveillance, and wind forecasting requirements for
desired conflict probe performance.
Friday, May 15, 1998
209 Akerman Hall
Refreshments served after the seminar in
227 Akerman Hall.
Disability accomodations provided upon request.
Audrey Stark-Evers, Senior Secretary,